March 19, 2004

To: LRDP Committee, Campus Community

From: Gary Griggs, Chair, Strategic Futures Committee

Re: Initial Recommendation for a 2020 Enrollment Scenario

As noted in my earlier communication to the campus community, two committees have been appointed as part of the campus process to update the UC Santa Cruz long range development plan. As one of its tasks, the Strategic Futures Committee (SFC)—charged with considering possible enrollment trajectories for UCSC over the next fifteen years—has been asked to recommend an on-campus enrollment scenario for the year 2020. This scenario will initiate an iterative consultative process between SFC and the LRDP Committee designed to evaluate the land-use implications of such an enrollment level, to understand its implications for campus quality of life, and to explore ways in which the campus and the community can work together creatively to ensure that University and community growth and development is planned synergistically to the benefit of both parties. It was this latter expectation that prompted the University to synchronize its LRDP planning horizon with that of the next Santa Cruz General Plan. Informed by these conversations, SFC will issue its final report and recommendations later this school year or in early summer 2004. The scenario—or more precisely, the working number—outlined in this communication is a refinement of the four scenarios previously provided and allows the analysis process to proceed to the next phase.

From the perspective of its first four decades, UCSC is now looking fifteen years into the future with its fifth Long Range Development Plan. As we sought to arrive at a working number, foremost in our thinking was the balance between how much the campus wants to grow in order to implement its academic vision and how fast the campus and the community could reasonably accommodate that growth—i.e., what rate of growth is appropriate. Over the last fifteen years, the campus grew at an average annual rate of nearly four percent; we believe that over the next fifteen years, the campus should grow at a slower rate—perhaps averaging half that of the previous period.

The challenge we now face collectively is to plan intelligently for the decade and a half ahead, using the best available information, data, and input, listening to all of the varied and diverse viewpoints, but also retaining flexibility for the unknown opportunities of the future. All academic institutions evolve and change over time in response to changing demographics, societal needs and values, and technological developments, as well as external challenges, economics, and employment opportunities. This fact has been recognized in each of the campus' previous physical plans. The first LRDP, completed in 1963, recommended, "the campus should retain flexibility." The subsequent 1971 plan stated that physical development should be phased to the paced growth of the academic plan such that adequate space and flexibility were retained for future growth and change. Seven years later, the 1978 LRDP affirmed, "The LRDP will change as issues change. Its intent is to guide growth and development at Santa Cruz until it, like earlier plans, needs changing to reflect future needs." Similarly, the 1988 LRDP set aside inclusion areas and campus resource lands to address those changing needs—including growth and development beyond 2005. It is anticipated and expected that all future long range plans will need to be updated periodically to keep up with a changing world and society. The 2005-2020 LRDP is no exception and will need to be crafted to accommodate that requirement.

A number of internal and external factors will influence the analysis of campus enrollment growth. The Strategic Futures Committee focused its attention on three primary factors and organized itself into subcommittees to analyze each:

• The campus' aspirations—including its desire to enhance the distinction of its academic programs and, in particular, the quality and effectiveness of its graduate programs—require that the campus make provision for sufficient numbers and breadth of faculty to fully develop its existing and newer programs as well as be competitive in emerging fields and have the flexibility to support new research activities;
• The opportunities and potential for new graduate programs, research centers and professional schools in emerging or new disciplines, consistent with the campus' existing strengths, future opportunities, and regional connections; and
• The University of California's responsibility to the people of this State to provide higher-education access requires that the campus accommodate its share of California's growing number of academically prepared and increasingly diverse high school graduates, community college transfers, and those requiring post-baccalaureate (graduate or professional) education.

The Committee's investigation revealed that an analysis using any one of these perspectives provides ample justification to achieve or exceed a total three-quarter-average on-campus enrollment of 25,000 FTE—the "responsive" scenario cited in my December 19, 2003 letter to the campus community. The fact that all three lead to the same conclusion makes it even more compelling.

Recognizing, however, that this pressure for significant growth through 2020 and beyond needs to be balanced by countervailing academic principles, SFC created a team to articulate a vision for the UC Santa Cruz of 2020 with a special emphasis on those qualities that will affect a sustainable quality of life for faculty, staff, students and the surrounding community. This fourth subcommittee reviewed existing campus strategic and vision documents to identify the values, principles, and qualities of UC Santa Cruz that must be preserved as the campus considers growth associated with the next stage of its development. Principal among these were the campus' Millennium Committee recommendations and the goals shaping the campus' most recent ten-year planning effort.

External factors beyond our control include the numbers of UC-eligible graduating high school seniors, the number of community college transfer applicants, as well as the economic health of the State and, therefore, the resources available to the University to meet these enrollment demands. Factors internal to the campus include achieving the balance between graduate and undergraduate enrollment and the rate of new student enrollment that can be supported and sustained—which, in turn, is influenced by the hiring of new faculty, time required to develop and gain approval for new graduate programs and professional schools, construction of facilities, adequate staff, and infrastructure. We feel strongly that flexibility for change and growth beyond 2020 needs to be maintained in campus planning.

Based upon its deliberations and consultations thus far, the Strategic Futures Committee is committed to a growth rate that is careful, responsible, and strategic; is consistent with an emphasis on quality; and is consistent with campus values—including the campus' desire to work with the Santa Cruz community to seek practical solutions to the inevitable challenges of change and growth. Therefore, the Strategic Futures Committee is forwarding this initial recommendation to the Chancellor and Campus Provost and to the LRDP Committee that the campus' 2005-2020 LRDP accommodate a three-quarter-average on-campus enrollment of up to 21,000 FTE—a greater proportion (15%) of which are graduate and professional students. This more conservative scenario represents growth of 400 new students/year, on average, and equates to a growth rate of 2.7% in 2005, falling to 1.9% in 2020—a significant reduction from the average annual growth rate of 7.3% for the last five years and 3.8% for the last fifteen years.

The Strategic Futures Committee sees this step, the recommendation of a growth rate and enrollment scenario for 2020, as the end of Phase 1 and the beginning of Phase 2 of the planning process. We look forward to reviewing the land use, environmental, and community implications of our suggested 2020 enrollment as it is tested by the LRDP Committee and its workgroups. We also look forward to hearing from the broader campus community about this recommendation. To that end, we encourage you to send us email at sfc@ucsc.edu or to speak individually with any of our members.

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Web resources:

• Contact the Strategic Futures Committee: sfc@ucsc.edu
• Strategic Futures Committee website: planning.ucsc.edu/sfc/
• LRDP Committee website: planning.ucsc.edu/lrdp/

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